Physics-Based Earthquake Simulation for the Alborz Region to Evaluate Seismicity Parameters

Document Type : Articles

Authors

1 School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Seismological Research Center, Zorich Institute of Technology, Zorich, Switzerland

3 Seismological Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran

4 University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The Iranian Plateau is characterized as one of the most seismic regions in the world, and the most populated cities are located near its active faults, indicating high possible seismic risk. Estimation of earthquake occurrence probabilities can play an important role in earthquake damage mitigation. In the present study, earthquake simulation technique, based on the boundary elements method, is used for the Alborz region in order to have more accurate estimates of earthquakes return periods and consider faults interaction. First of all, seismic parameters for the region are evaluated using the obtained synthetic catalog. In addition, the synthetic activity rates are also compared to independent past studies (e.g. paleoseismological investigation). The estimated return periods lie within the uncertainties of previous studies, showing robustness of the proposed model. As the next step, characteristic earthquake magnitude and its return period distribution are presented for all active faults in the study region. According to the synthetic catalog, earthquake occurrence probability for an individual fault is related to the time elapsed from the last earthquake while earthquakes occurrence tends to a random behavior if all active faults in the region are considered together. Given the long-term seismic catalog and determination of the last earthquakes for each fault, earthquakes occurrence probabilities are estimated for the next 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for all active faults. The more time elapse form the last earthquake, the more earthquake occurrence probabilities are estimated, confirming Reid’s theory and proving necessity of long-term simulation to have a better estimate of earthquakes occurrence probabilities.

Keywords

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 December 2017
  • Revise Date: 31 January 2021
  • Accept Date: 26 December 2020

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